Diplomacy and War
Zelensky-Trump-Putin phone diplomacy, NATO and Poland-Ukraine: My interview yesterday on TVP World
Zelensky-Trump and Putin-Trump calls:
Zelensky can build on recent military successes against Russia (drones, deep strikes). Trump may not like Zelensky, but he respects winners.
Zelensky can show that he is still interested in peace negotiations, as opposed to Putin who hasn’t budged since 2022
NATO summit in Ankara:
damage limitation is the Europeans’ goal but Trump has been turning up the hate against NATO recently.
On defence spending, Greenland, Iran, in 2025/6 Europeans have done the reasonable things and resisted the crazy ideas.
The problem is that every Trump tweet bashing the allies gives Putin new hope of splitting the West and thereby eventually winning against Ukraine.
Ukrainian drone strikes:
They are extremely effective in turning up the heat on Putin. He is now in his worst situation since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, thanks to Ukrainian military successes, but also Western sanctions and the subsequent souring of the mood of many Russians.
Whether that will force him to compromise on peace with Ukraine, remains to be seen. But it’s still Ukraine’s best bet.
Military situation in Donbas:
Claims and counter-claims about who controls Kostyantynivka: What we know for sure is that the city centre will still be embattled for some time while Ukraine inflicts terrible losses on Russia (like in Pokrovsk).
Kostyantynivka is no tipping point, even for the Donbas itself. Slovyansk and Kramatorsk are firmly in Ukrainian hands, and strongly fortified.
US intel warnings about Russian attack against Poland:
Putin may indeed be weighing options of a hybrid attack on a NATO member. It sounds counter-intuitive because Russia has problems already in Ukraine but it would most certainly not be a full-scale ground attack but something hybrid (missiles, drones, sabotage, maybe limited incursion under false flag).
The goal would not be to conquer territory, but to distract attention (and arms deliveries) from Ukraine and, above all, split the Europeans: there would be countries in favour of an armed response and others who would want to de-escalate.
Donald Tusk is right to amplify those US government warnings: Better safe than sorry!
The Polish-Ukrainian spat over history:
This is by now a full-blown crisis between important allies, and the only profiteer is Putin!
Mistakes were made on both sides, but the most important lesson is: Poles and Ukrainians will hardly agree on a common vision of a painful history. They should jointly prioritise to cooperate on topics that are of strategic importance: that Ukraine wins the war and that it soon joins the EU.
In that sense, history should be put in its place.